Myanmar Conflict Updates
A regular analysis of conflict dynamics and trends in Myanmar.
Crossing the Rubicon: Are Myanmar’s ethnic armies prepared to go all in?
Under relentless blockade and attack from the air, Myanmar’s opposition forces have no way to stabilise or develop their newly captured territories unless they either make peace with the regime or overthrow it.
Regime election plans and prospects for dialogue in Myanmar
Following major opposition victories, neither side appears willing to talk. But pressure from Beijing, including for ceasefires and a regime-organised election, could shake up the conflict outlook.
Is the Brotherhood headed to Mandalay?
The recent fall of Lashio has placed the Myanmar military in its most vulnerable position since the 2021 coup. Unable to mount a meaningful counter-offensive, the regime’s core territory now lies exposed to the threat of direct attack by the Brotherhood Alliance and its partners.
China pressures Myanmar opposition groups to halt latest offensive
A powerful trio of ethnic armies are attempting to secure buffer zones between their newly captured territories and the regime's stronghold in central Myanmar. But the strategy has invited pushback from China and other ethnic actors.
Threat of communal violence grows in western and central Myanmar
Anti-junta forces continue to make gains on the battlefield. But tense social dynamics and the consequences of protracted violence threaten to derail their momentum.
Melee in Myawaddy: Resistance battles junta in key border town
Resistance forces almost dislodged the regime from a key trading town on the Thai-Myanmar border. But a third party altered the course of battle.
Myanmar’s regime shrinks further towards the centre
The junta has suffered another extraordinary loss in the western state of Rakhine. Its control over the peripheries is slipping, though its grip on the centre appears firm.
Problems extend beyond battlefield for Myanmar’s battered regime
Poor decision-making and an inflexible strategy are compounding the junta’s losses and driving discontent among army commanders.
Is Myanmar’s regime at risk of collapse?
Three powerful ethnic armies have delivered a severe blow to the regime in Myanmar’s northern Shan State. But elsewhere in the country the outlook is mixed.
Operation 1027 reshapes Myanmar’s post-coup war
A powerful ethnic alliance with close ties to China has inflicted on the Myanmar regime its worst battlefield setback in decades and inspired a wave of attacks by other opponents across the country. But unless the military suffers a total collapse of cohesion and morale, the regime is likely to fight on.
Myanmar regime brings significant escalation to the doorstep of key opponent
A regime offensive aims to break the military alliance between the Kachin Independence Army and resistance forces fighting in central Myanmar.
Fighting rages along Myanmar’s transport routes
The junta’s opponents are contesting roads, rivers and railways throughout the country, but the regime retains sufficient control over supply lines to sustain its offensives.
Junta tactics shift in Myanmar’s war-torn Dry Zone
To counter the rise of new armed groups, the junta and its proxies have razed an estimated 53,000 civilian homes across Myanmar’s Dry Zone, the epicentre of the resistance movement. Beginning in 2023, however, junta forces appeared to shift tactics, launching a more-direct assault on resistance groups.
Battle for Kayah is key for Myanmar junta and its opponents
The battle for Kayah State, which is strategically located between resistance strongholds in the Dry Zone and the southeast, is now the longest episode of sustained, relatively high-intensity combat since Myanmar’s post-coup war began.
Myanmar’s conflict intensifies as use of firepower expands
The Myanmar military is ramping up pressure on resistance forces and their civilian supporters with increasingly destructive displays of firepower. Violence is intensifying, and the humanitarian crisis is worsening.