Myanmar Conflict Updates
A monthly analysis covering key dynamics, conflict trends, and political developments related to the ongoing crisis in Myanmar.
Myanmar’s regime shrinks further towards the centre
The junta has suffered another extraordinary loss in the western state of Rakhine. Its control over the peripheries is slipping, though its grip on the centre appears firm.
Problems extend beyond battlefield for Myanmar’s battered regime
Poor decision-making and an inflexible strategy are compounding the junta’s losses and driving discontent among army commanders.
Is Myanmar’s regime at risk of collapse?
Three powerful ethnic armies have delivered a severe blow to the regime in Myanmar’s northern Shan State. But elsewhere in the country the outlook is mixed.
Operation 1027 reshapes Myanmar’s post-coup war
A powerful ethnic alliance with close ties to China has inflicted on the Myanmar regime its worst battlefield setback in decades and inspired a wave of attacks by other opponents across the country. But unless the military suffers a total collapse of cohesion and morale, the regime is likely to fight on.
Myanmar regime brings significant escalation to the doorstep of key opponent
A regime offensive aims to break the military alliance between the Kachin Independence Army and resistance forces fighting in central Myanmar.
Fighting rages along Myanmar’s transport routes
The junta’s opponents are contesting roads, rivers and railways throughout the country, but the regime retains sufficient control over supply lines to sustain its offensives.
Junta tactics shift in Myanmar’s war-torn Dry Zone
To counter the rise of new armed groups, the junta and its proxies have razed an estimated 53,000 civilian homes across Myanmar’s Dry Zone, the epicentre of the resistance movement. Beginning in 2023, however, junta forces appeared to shift tactics, launching a more-direct assault on resistance groups.
Battle for Kayah is key for Myanmar junta and its opponents
The battle for Kayah State, which is strategically located between resistance strongholds in the Dry Zone and the southeast, is now the longest episode of sustained, relatively high-intensity combat since Myanmar’s post-coup war began.
Myanmar’s conflict intensifies as use of firepower expands
The Myanmar military is ramping up pressure on resistance forces and their civilian supporters with increasingly destructive displays of firepower. Violence is intensifying, and the humanitarian crisis is worsening.