Analysis

Protracted war has transformed the country in dangerous ways, putting the struggle for democracy and Myanmar’s sovereignty at risk. Further violence is likely to deepen divisions and close off already difficult paths towards peace and prosperity.

In the immediate aftermath of the 28 March earthquake, the regime continued its brutal air campaign and other violence against civilians while some opposition forces made significant strategic advances.

Under relentless blockade and attack from the air, Myanmar’s opposition forces have no way to stabilise or develop their newly captured territories unless they either make peace with the regime or overthrow it.

Following major opposition victories, neither side appears willing to talk. But pressure from Beijing, including for ceasefires and a regime-organised election, could shake up the conflict outlook.

The recent fall of Lashio has placed the Myanmar military in its most vulnerable position since the 2021 coup. Unable to mount a meaningful counter-offensive, the regime’s core territory now lies exposed to the threat of direct attack by the Brotherhood Alliance and its partners.

A powerful trio of ethnic armies are attempting to secure buffer zones between their newly captured territories and the regime's stronghold in central Myanmar. But the strategy has invited pushback from China and other ethnic actors.

The ongoing humanitarian crisis is widespread but varies geographically, as humanitarian outcomes and responses depend on the varied ways in which the junta has targeted civilians, local capacities for delivering aid, and the presence of international borders.

Anti-junta forces continue to make gains on the battlefield. But tense social dynamics and the consequences of protracted violence threaten to derail their momentum.

Resistance forces almost dislodged the regime from a key trading town on the Thai-Myanmar border. But a third party altered the course of battle.

The junta has suffered another extraordinary loss in the western state of Rakhine. Its control over the peripheries is slipping, though its grip on the centre appears firm.

Poor decision-making and an inflexible strategy are compounding the junta’s losses and driving discontent among army commanders.

Growing competition between armed actors, a surge in violence and crime, declining donor support and restrictive government policies are pushing Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh towards a crisis point.

Three powerful ethnic armies have delivered a severe blow to the regime in Myanmar’s northern Shan State. But elsewhere in the country the outlook is mixed.

A powerful ethnic alliance with close ties to China has inflicted on the Myanmar regime its worst battlefield setback in decades and inspired a wave of attacks by other opponents across the country. But unless the military suffers a total collapse of cohesion and morale, the regime is likely to fight on.

A regime offensive aims to break the military alliance between the Kachin Independence Army and resistance forces fighting in central Myanmar.

The junta’s opponents are contesting roads, rivers and railways throughout the country, but the regime retains sufficient control over supply lines to sustain its offensives.

A diplomatic intervention by China is propping up the junta in Myanmar by pushing the country’s strongest ethnic armies to limit their support for the post-coup uprising. By helping to slow the evolution of the resistance movement, China may ensure the longer-term survival of the Myanmar junta.

To counter the rise of new armed groups, the junta and its proxies have razed an estimated 53,000 civilian homes across Myanmar’s Dry Zone, the epicentre of the resistance movement. Beginning in 2023, however, junta forces appeared to shift tactics, launching a more-direct assault on resistance groups.

The battle for Kayah State, which is strategically located between resistance strongholds in the Dry Zone and the southeast, is now the longest episode of sustained, relatively high-intensity combat since Myanmar’s post-coup war began.

Once-peaceful areas in lower Myanmar are home to a new cast of conflict actors waging urban guerrilla warfare against the junta and its allies. Given the strategic importance of Yangon and Naypyidaw, the course of the conflict in lower Myanmar will be critical for the resistance. Yet it is unclear if anti-SAC forces can move beyond creating confusion and disorder in urban areas to shape a decisive outcome for the resistance.

The Myanmar military is ramping up pressure on resistance forces and their civilian supporters with increasingly destructive displays of firepower. Violence is intensifying, and the humanitarian crisis is worsening.

Despite strong ethnonational sentiment, Northwest Myanmar was relatively calm in decades past. The coup tipped the balance towards armed conflict. This theatre features a high tempo of activity by People’s Defence Force (PDF) units and a revitalised ethnic armed organisation (EAO).

Conflict in southeast Myanmar is shaped by a convergence between the goals of longstanding ethnic armed organisations (EAOs) and newer groups formed in response to the coup.

In northeast Myanmar, the coup has transformed protracted armed conflicts and the war economies they have produced. The conflict in this part of Myanmar is not simply between the Tatmadaw and its opponents, as the coup has reignited tensions between ethnic armed organisations (EAOs).

A brutal conflict may return to Rakhine if a fragile truce between the Tatmadaw and the Arakan Army falls apart — further straining the junta’s thinning capacity to beat back challenges to its rule.

The Dry Zone demonstrates how the coup has mobilised civilians untouched by armed insurgencies in recent decades. The emergence of People’s Defence Force (PDF) units and Pyusawhti militia are fundamentally reshaping social dynamics in Myanmar’s historic heartland.

The ongoing conflict in Myanmar is best understood according to six warscapes, each with distinct power dynamics. The coup introduced new actors and alliances, bringing war to places previously untouched by it while intensifying protracted armed struggles in others.