Analysis - IISS Myanmar Conflict Map

introduction

10 June 2022

Post-coup Myanmar in six warscapes

The ongoing conflict in Myanmar is best understood according to six warscapes, each with distinct power dynamics. The coup introduced new actors and alliances, bringing war to places previously untouched by it while intensifying protracted armed struggles in others.

Shona Loong • 15 min read

Warscape analyses

The Dry Zone

The Dry Zone demonstrates how the coup has mobilised civilians untouched by armed insurgencies in recent decades. The emergence of People’s Defence Force (PDF) units and Pyusawhti militia are fundamentally reshaping social dynamics in Myanmar’s historic heartland.

• 5 July 2022 • 15 min read

Rakhine

A brutal conflict may return to Rakhine if a fragile truce between the Tatmadaw and the Arakan Army falls apart — further straining the junta’s thinning capacity to beat back challenges to its rule.

• 26 July 2022 • 15 min read

Northeast Myanmar

In northeast Myanmar, the coup has transformed protracted armed conflicts and the war economies they have produced. The conflict in this part of Myanmar is not simply between the Tatmadaw and its opponents, as the coup has reignited tensions between ethnic armed organisations (EAOs).

• 16 August 2022 • 20 min read

Southeast Myanmar

Conflict in southeast Myanmar is shaped by a convergence between the goals of longstanding ethnic armed organisations (EAOs) and newer groups formed in response to the coup.

• 23 September 2022 • 15 min read

Northwest Myanmar

Despite strong ethnonational sentiment, Northwest Myanmar was relatively calm in decades past. The coup tipped the balance towards armed conflict. This theatre features a high tempo of activity by People’s Defence Force (PDF) units and a revitalised ethnic armed organisation (EAO).

• 15 November 2022 • 15 min read

Lower Myanmar

Lower Myanmar sheds light on the emergence of urban warfare in Myanmar. The Tatmadaw, accustomed to fighting in rural borderland areas, has had difficulty suppressing emergent urban guerrilla groups formed by former protesters.

• Coming soon • 15 min read